Davos: Waiting on quantum computing is not an option

Will quantum computing achieve a breakthrough as early as 2026 or 2027, or do we need to be patient? This was the topic of discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos between Arvind Krishna, CEO of IBM; John Martinis, the 2025 Nobel laureate in Physics; Doreen Bogdan-Martin, Secretary-General of the ITU; and Lene Oddershede of the Novo Nordisk Foundation. The panelists agreed on one point: Quantum computing is currently in a critical transition phase, moving from pure science to complex systems engineering.

When discussing quantum technology, a distinction should be made between three areas: computing, communication, and sensor technology. Quantum computing aims to solve problems in areas such as finance, climate modeling, and cryptography. Quantum communication focuses on secure data transmission. One goal is the development of a secure quantum internet.

Quantum sensors are a reality

While much in these two areas is still a thing of the future, quantum sensing has already arrived in reality.

Oddershede emphasized in Davos that quantum sensors are already being used in hospitals to diagnose heart disease or monitor brain activity.

“In biomedical applications, we will experience a real advantage as soon as we have around 50 functioning logic qubits to simulate small molecules,” the scientist explained. This could massively accelerate drug development.

The engineering dilemma: From craftsmanship to chip

In contrast, the path to a fully functional quantum computer is still fraught with challenges. Nobel laureate Martinis, one of the pioneers of quantum computing, compares the current state to the semiconductor industry of the 1960s: “We are currently still building qubits in an almost artisanal way.”

The goal is to make the leap into the late 1970s — away from individual wires and towards integrated microchips based on state-of-the-art semiconductor processes.

IBM CEO Krishna, however, has a more positive outlook: He sees the decisive moment for commercial use as being within reach: 2026 or 2027. For him, it is no longer primarily a scientific problem — i.e., the question of whether it is even possible to reliably calculate with quantum mechanics — but rather an engineering problem: How do you scale the hardware reliably and without errors?

Industries in transition: Materials science, finance, logistics

When asked which industries will benefit first from quantum computers, the IBM CEO sees three main areas:

• Materials science: The discovery of better lubricants or carbon-capture materials could transform multibillion-dollar markets. Even the reinvention of fertilizer production, which has been based on the Haber-Bosch process since the 1890s, seems possible through quantum simulations of biological processes.
• Finance: The pricing of complex derivatives, taking into account numerous constraints, becomes feasible with quantum computers.
• Logistics: Complex logistical problems, for which proven algorithms already exist, can be optimized further via quantum computing.

The dark side: The ‘quantum gap’ and the security vulnerability

Despite the upbeat discussion in Davos, there were also words of caution. ITU Secretary-General Bogdan-Martin sees the danger of a growing “quantum divide.” Only 24 of the 193 UN member states currently have a national quantum strategy. Therefore, there is a risk that developing countries will once again fall behind, while a handful of nations share the progress among themselves.

Another pressing problem is cybersecurity. Quantum computers are capable of cracking today’s encryption. Experts are speaking of a “Y2K moment.” Although “post-quantum secure” algorithms already exist, companies and governments must act now to protect their data for the future — especially since nation-states could possess the necessary quantum capabilities by 2030.

To-do list

Waiting is therefore not an option. The experts in Davos were unanimous on this point. According to them, an “Action Plan for Quantum” should include the following points:

• Promoting science: Even small countries should invest in basic research, as brilliant minds can find groundbreaking theoretical solutions here.
• Training skilled workers: Not only physicists are needed, but also engineers, software developers and even philosophers to guide quantum technology ethically and practically.
• Find use cases: Companies need to start experimenting with this “new kind of mathematics” now to be ready when the hardware reaches the necessary scale.

The gist of the discussion is that quantum technology is no longer just a topic for the laboratory. It is a strategic necessity that will determine the economic and security policy relevance of a country and its economy in the coming decades.