Why every country wants a data center — and most will lose

Every decade or so, a new form of infrastructure becomes the thing that separates economies that compound from economies that stagnate. In the 20th century, it was ports, highways and power grids. Right now, it’s compute. And governments around the world are scrambling to get a piece of it — offering land, tax breaks and power guarantees to a small group of American and Chinese technology companies — without fully understanding what they’re trading away or what they’re actually competing for.

I’ve spent my career designing and building these facilities. Here’s what I see.

What a country is really signing up for

When a government announces it’s attracting a hyperscale data center, the press release usually mentions jobs, digital transformation and becoming a regional tech hub. What it rarely mentions is what the country is giving up and what it will need to sustain the facility for the next 20 years.

A large data center — say, 100 megawatts — needs roughly the same power as a small city. It needs that power reliably, 24 hours a day, with redundancy built in so that a grid fluctuation doesn’t take down critical systems. It needs water, often millions of gallons per month, for cooling. It needs fiber connectivity with multiple diverse routes. It needs a construction workforce that understands raised floor systems, precision cooling, high-voltage electrical distribution and fire suppression. And it needs all of this before a single server is installed.

Most developing countries don’t have this. Not yet. And the gap between “we want a data center” and “we can sustain one” is exactly where deals fall apart, projects stall or facilities get built and then underperform.

The countries pulling away

The United States has roughly 4,000 data center facilities, more than any other country by a wide margin. That number is growing faster than most of the rest of the world combined. The reasons are structural: deregulated power markets in key states, established fiber networks, deep capital markets, a legal system investors trust and decades of operational knowledge in the industry.

China is building at comparable speed but inside a closed system. Its facilities serve Chinese companies under strict data localization rules. For global capital allocators, China is largely a separate game.

The EU is growing but constrained by its own regulations. GDPR and data sovereignty laws mean European data often must stay in Europe, which is creating demand — but also creating friction. Energy costs, permitting timelines and land constraints in Western Europe are pushing investment toward Nordic countries (cheap hydropower, natural cooling) and Central and Eastern Europe (lower costs, EU membership).

Singapore, Australia and Japan are the established APAC anchors. They have the rule of law, the connectivity and the enterprise demand. But Singapore banned new data center construction outright from 2019 to 2022 over resource concerns, and even its 2025 reopening came with strict sustainability quotas that leave hundreds of megawatts of demand unmet. The pressure is redistributing. 

Where developing countries actually stand

India is the clearest breakout story. It has real enterprise demand, a growing hyperscaler presence and government policy actively supporting data center investment — including a 20-year tax holiday for foreign cloud operators announced in the 2026 budget. The challenges are grid reliability and water scarcity in key metro areas — solvable problems, but they require serious infrastructure investment alongside the facilities themselves.

Southeast Asia — Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam — is attracting genuine capital. Malaysia in particular has moved fast, drawing more than $24 billion in approved data center investment and positioning Johor (just across the border from Singapore) as an overflow market. The risk is that these countries are capturing construction investment and some jobs, but the operational expertise and long-term value is still flowing out.

Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America are earlier. There is demand — mobile internet penetration is driving real data needs — but the power infrastructure in most markets isn’t ready for hyperscale. What’s viable today is edge computing: smaller, distributed facilities closer to users that don’t require the same power density. This is where early investors are looking.

What developing countries are getting wrong in negotiations

When a government announces it has attracted a hyperscale data center, the story is always the same: jobs, digital transformation, becoming a regional tech hub. What’s missing from that story is the question of who controls what.

A data center is not an economic anchor the way a factory is. A factory transfers skills, builds supplier ecosystems and creates middle-class employment at scale. A data center run by a foreign hyperscaler employs a small local facilities team, sends all operational decision-making offshore and keeps every dollar of the value it generates inside its own balance sheet. The host country gets the electricity bill and the water consumption. The technology company gets the asset.

What countries are actually competing for is not a building. It’s the right to be inside the infrastructure layer that runs the global economy for the next 30 years. That requires a completely different negotiation — one about data rights, local engineering capacity, grid co-investment and long-term operational control. Almost nobody is having that negotiation. They’re haggling over tax rates instead.

The governments that are negotiating well understand this. They’re demanding local data processing requirements, commitments to train and hire local engineers, co-investment in grid upgrades and technology transfer agreements. They’re treating compute infrastructure the way Gulf states treated oil infrastructure in the 1970s — the leverage point is during the negotiation, not after.

The governments that are not doing this will look back in 20 years and realize they subsidized someone else’s infrastructure empire.

What this means if you’re allocating capital

The investment thesis in this space is not “find the next Singapore.” That window has closed. The actual opportunity is in the infrastructure gaps.

Power is the binding constraint everywhere. Companies that can solve reliable, cheap, clean power for data centers — whether through grid modernization, on-site generation or small modular nuclear reactors — are sitting on the scarcest input in the industry. This is where I’d be looking.

Second-tier markets are real. The “big four” US markets — Northern Virginia, Silicon Valley, Dallas, Chicago — are land-constrained, power-constrained and increasingly expensive. Capital is moving to the Midwest, the Southwest and internationally to markets with available power and land. The facilities being built in these markets today are the critical infrastructure of the next decade.

The countries that get the policy right — stable regulation, reliable power, fair contract enforcement — will attract disproportionate capital. The ones that don’t will keep making announcements and watching projects stall.

In the 19th century, the countries that owned the ports controlled trade. In the 20th century, the countries that controlled oil set the terms for industrial growth. Compute is next. The physical layer of AI infrastructure — the land, the power, the cooling, the fiber — is being locked up right now, mostly by a handful of private companies operating across borders with very little accountability to the countries hosting them.

For capital allocators, the opportunity is real and the window is open but not indefinitely. Power solutions, second-tier markets and policy-stable emerging economies are where the uncaptured value sits.

For governments, the window to negotiate from a position of strength is also now — before the facilities are built and the leverage is gone. Once the servers are in the ground, the terms are set.

The countries and investors who understand this in 2025 will look very smart in 2040. The ones who are still thinking about data centers as a real estate play will not.