Will AI kill jobs? History says otherwise

In April 1860, the Pony Express launched its operation to much fanfare. Using a series of riders on horses to relay messages from Missouri to California, it became an instant icon of the Wild West.

The service lasted all of eighteen months. The Pony Express couldn’t compete with the transcontinental telegraph, completed in 1861, which delivered messages in a fraction of the time.

With AI poised to transform work today, we all have some degree of fear that our jobs will go the way of the Pony Express. But we miss the full story when we focus only on the fate of the famed riders.

How the newfangled technology of the telegraph made one job obsolete while spawning countless others is an example of an important historical lesson for today: major technological advancements are catalysts for creating jobs, even entire new industries.

AI stands to be the next revolutionary advancement because it has the ability to learn and far surpass human intelligence, enabling it to analyze data more deeply and generate insights that would be impossible for humans alone. Rather than killing jobs, AI will create new jobs that were unimaginable just a few years before.

What should enterprises learn from the past in order to thrive during this rapidly advancing intelligence revolution?

New technology, same pattern

Every major technological revolution follows a similar pattern: a new technology comes along which upends the old ways of doing things, resulting in major changes to how we live, work, and think.

During the agricultural revolution, we built villages and towns, took on new jobs to support farming, and started thinking differently about things like land ownership and trade. The industrial revolution that followed saw us moving to cities, working in manufacturing, and developing new ideas like consumerism and automation.

Electricity, telecommunications, the computer, and every other major technological development has had the same effect: the world transformed in ways that we’d never imagined just a generation before.

The level of change these technological revolutions bring about is monumental. For example, in 1870 half of all workers in the United States were agricultural; by 1900, one generation later, that number had dropped to one-third. Now that number is around 4%. There are more people to feed today but that’s offset by how much more efficient agricultural work has become.

Artificial intelligence is the next great disruptor. We are witnessing an intelligence revolution where AI will give us access to capabilities, information, and insights that go well beyond human capacity. Just like the revolutions before, this one will fundamentally transform how we live, work, and think.

Technology as a job creator

One change we already see unfolding is how we consume data. We do not need to find data, search through results, or spend time compiling information in the same way as the past. As a result, how we think about information, including authorship, may change dramatically. This example is just the tip of the iceberg for what is coming.

So what will work look like in the AI-first era? It can be hard to predict because these moments are so transformative. After all, you couldn’t imagine the job of electrician before electricity.

We can see patterns emerging. Companies are wanting to build large language models, so we know jobs to build, maintain, and utilize these LLMs will multiply. But we also know jobs will be created that are beyond the limits of our current imagination.

Fifty percent of the workforce no longer in agriculture today doesn’t mean that fifty percent of workers are unemployed. Instead, they moved into other industries. History shows us that during each of these technological revolutions, the net outcome is job creation, especially in entirely new sectors.

Yes, the telegraph killed the Pony Express, but anyone looking around in 1861 would have found a job market flourishing with new professions like line repair staff and skilled operators. It’s crucial to note that many of these new jobs went to women and provided better pay, mobility, and independence during a time of limited opportunity.

The intelligence revolution will be just as transformative for work, and we can look back for insight into what changes AI might bring. Most of the new jobs created during other tech revolutions fall into one of two categories: (1) jobs that support the new technology and (2) jobs that use the new technology.

On the support side, we’ll see a major expansion in IT jobs that help develop and implement AI. These will be the steam engine builders and loom fabricators for the AI age. Recently, many companies have prioritized jobs that support AI. They are hyper focused on AI development, paying a premium for those with AI skills, while devaluing or even eliminating other positions.

But just as a factory of loom builders alone couldn’t make fabric, an enterprise of AI builders alone cannot use AI. We need to think about what to do with the technology, rather than just having the technology itself.

Jobs that use the new technology are equally important as the builders of the technology, even if we don’t know what most of those future jobs might be.

No crystal ball, no problem

Given the lack of clarity on what the jobs and uses of AI will be in the future, what should businesses do? This uncertainty actually suggests a clear path forward. Businesses should of course be investing in jobs that support AI. Chief AI Officer, Prompt Engineer, and AI Research Scientist are a few examples.

But what happens when we build all these amazing AI capabilities without developing the use cases? We also must invest in workers with the skills to identify and develop the applications for AI.

Companies need workers who can imagine how we might live, work, and think in new ways. Open-mindedness is crucial because, in this moment of transition, fixating on what’s already been done and assumed limitations hinders innovation. Skills like problem solving and critical thinking are invaluable. We need strong analytical thinkers who can get to the root of problems and imagine innovative solutions harnessing AI.

In short, creativity is just as important as domain expertise for enterprises looking to capitalize on the intelligence revolution.

Such soft skills are harder to quantify or hire for than say a computer science degree, but they are critical. One of AI’s many future use cases will be to help enterprises better map employees’ full skillsets and develop workers’ soft and hard skills.

Just like with past technological revolutions, we can’t predict what is coming. But we can work to have the right people in place at the right time to help enterprises and society transform.

A fast revolution

Today’s intelligence revolution does differ from the past because of the pace of change. After decades of effort, the first telegraphs appeared in the 1830s. It took another thirty years, and financial support from Congress to help complete the line, before the telegraph could actually outcompete the Pony Express.

Today, geography and money are not holding AI back and the technology has already advanced substantially in a matter of months. AI may follow the same pattern as past tech advancements, but it is on an exponentially accelerated timeline. We’re right at the start and will get to witness, and also hopefully shape, how this new technology will transform the world.

Much of the textbook chapter on the intelligence revolution is still being written, but I feel pretty confident that the chapter title will not be “job killer.” Given how fast things are changing, we shouldn’t have to wait too long to find out.