Forrester: EU cloud sovereignty unrealistic for 2026

Despite intensive efforts to reduce dependence on global resources and gain sovereignty over the technology stack and digital platforms, no European company will be able to completely move away from US hyperscalers by 2026, according to analyst firm Forrester’s 2026 European Predictions.

Although individual industries are beginning to migrate to specific niche applications, Forrester sees the impact on the overall European cloud market as small, as a complete switch away from major players such as AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure to local providers is not realistic in the short to medium term.

Pragmatism beats independence

“The European Union is making a concerted effort to become more competitive and reduce its dependence on global tech infrastructure,” explains Dane Anderson, senior vice president of international research and product at Forrester. In reality, however, ongoing volatility and operational constraints are forcing European companies to pursue more pragmatic strategies, both in the short and long term.

Nevertheless, Forrester argues that European companies shouldn’t give up on their sovereignty just yet. To reduce their dependence on US hyperscalers, companies should rethink their cloud strategy and enable their organization to achieve a level of digital sovereignty that is feasible, desirable, sustainable, and affordable — especially given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Microsoft continues to dominate the desktops

The analysts also reject the idea that many European organizations will follow the example of Schleswig-Holstein or Lyon and switch to Linux desktops or open-source office and collaboration solutions by 2026. They explain that there is still a lack of mission-critical, fully supported offerings.

Forrester’s forecasts also put a damper on the hopes of many European companies to make faster progress in the field of artificial intelligence. While the daily use of generative AI by end users will double by 2026, European companies will still lag behind the US, according to the experts.

Specifically, they assume that companies on the old continent are lagging behind their US counterparts by around 10% in company-wide introduction of generative AI.

The reason, according to Forrester, is that many providers initially launch their AI initiatives in the US before introducing them in Europe; moreover, European companies have less mature AI capabilities and are subject to stricter EU regulations.

The analysts’ recommendation: Go beyond the proof-of-concept phase and accelerate your roadmap by investing specifically in your organization’s AI capabilities.