As executives shift their attention to 2025, global minds are open — ever so briefly — to focusing on actually understanding and acting on technology trends and opportunities.

Those of us who read tea leaves for a living lament the fact that IT trend analysis has, for the past three years, been hijacked by the term “ChatGPT.” 

Yes, every board member has played with generative AI. And yes, I recognize that AI is different because previous hot technologies such as client/server and cloud didn’t get a parking space in the boss’s brain box. 

But still, few will contest that just about everything associated with IT has become a discussion of generative AI. And despite Gartner forecasting that by 2030 every dollar of IT spend will have an AI component, CIOs nevertheless need to broaden the collective technology imagination beyond AI.

I queried 40 technology leaders about which non-AI technology trends CIOs need to pay attention to in the year ahead. Here’s what I found.

It’s the ‘Expectations Gap,’ stupid!

There’s a growing trend toward skepticism regarding the CIO’s ability to create value. This must be addressed.

In McKinsey’s recent 180-page white paper on technology, we are told, “Most organizations achieve less than 30% of the impact they expect from their digital investments.”  

The IBM Institute for Business Value surveyed 2,500 C-suite executives and discovered that only 36% of CEOs, 50% of CFOs and 47% of tech leaders thought the IT organization was effective at providing basic technology services — a big drop-off from a decade ago, suggesting confidence in IT has eroded.

At the Gartner IT Symposium/Xpo 2024 in Barcelona, attendees were told that “on average, only 48% of digital initiatives meet or exceed business outcome targets.” 

Macroeconomically, data indicates that IT spending since 2000 has increased 130%, while GDP has only increased 29%.

CIOs are going to have to inject themselves into the vortex wherein IT expectations are created and make sure key stakeholders understand where, why, and to what purpose IT spend is being allocated. This can best be achieved via three levers:

• Transparency, so that people know how much and where money is being spent
• Control, so that people have a say in how much and where money is being spent
• Explainability, so that people understand why money is being spent where it is

The value IT creates cannot be generalized — i.e., “We didn’t have any significant security incidents,” or “Uptime was pretty good last year.” Returns on IT investments must be atomized to the individual department, stakeholder, and employee level. Stakeholders need to be made aware of the value they are getting from IT.

Moreover, CIOs must migrate from “meeting expectations” to “exceeding expectations.” The consensus among my sample set of technology leaders indicates less than 10% of IT organizations are “exceeding expectations” today.

… and it’s the ‘Tech Literacy Gap’ as well

During his seven years as Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Communications and Information (NTIA), where he was a principal advisor to the President, Vice President, and Secretary of Commerce, Larry Irving coined the phrase “Digital Divide,” advocating for domestic and international policies to increase more equitable access to the Internet and related technologies. Putting technology in the hands of end-users is not enough. End-users need to understand how to use the technology productively.

Many CIOs recount misunderstandings among staff regarding when IT’s job is done. During the rollout of a collaboration platform, a project manager asked her team, “When are we finished?” The team responded unanimously, “When we have installed the icon [for the new app] on everyone’s desktop.”

Wrong answer. The correct answer is when all users know how to use the app to create value.

One CIO suggested something like Tupperware parties — in-person, hands-on events similar to home demonstrations wherein users are shown how to create value with the IT services being provided.

Greg Brockman, co-founder and current president of OpenAI, explains, “It’s not enough just to produce this technology and toss it over the fence and say, ‘OK, our job is done. Just let the world figure it out.’”

There are toxic attitudes and assumptions regarding technology floating around most enterprises today. As Arnold Schwarzenegger commented, “A lot of people are worried on artificial intelligence; I’m more worried about basic stupidity.”

Just as CIOs have to atomize/personalize how they articulate the value being delivered by IT, so too do they have to atomize/personalize the training associated with technology initiatives.

At the Department of Transportation in the State of Ohio, Deputy Director and CIO Charles Ash and his team recognizes that technology literacy is not evenly distributed throughout the stakeholder base. They tailor technology projects to the full spectrum of IT literacy ranging from technology-resistant to advanced technology users.

Shouldn’t you?

If you want IT’s reputation for creating value to turn around, you certainly should.