From false alarms to real threats: Protecting cryptography against quantum

In the past 12 months, the cryptography and security community has experienced heightening concern about the progress of quantum computing. The last year has been marked by key developments in quantum computing technology, as well as multiple instances of false alarms over potential quantum breakthroughs that put cryptography at risk. Although these alarms were ultimately disproven, when considered alongside genuine advancements in quantum computing, they highlighted the fragility of society’s digital infrastructure. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break much of the cryptography relied upon globally.

Given how fundamental cryptography is to security everywhere, a quantum computing breakthrough before the world is ready would jeopardise security. It could allow attackers to run riot across our digital infrastructure – giving them freedom to access network services, takeover devices, steal blockchain assets, decrypt sensitive data, and more.

In reaction to these advancements, there has been an increased sense of urgency to fortify cryptography, driven by technical authorities and experts. This urgency has led to accelerated timelines and new policies to address the looming quantum threat [1]. Against this backdrop, the security community has intensified its preparations. Academia, standards bodies, governments, and industry are collaborating and making concerted efforts to migrate technologies to being quantum resistant.

HP is actively preparing for the quantum threat. Its security innovation strategy has long been focused on making the necessary preparations to protect customers from emerging and evolving cyber threats, and this includes the threat to cryptography from future quantum computers. In this effort, HP is prioritising quantum resistance for the critical device foundations that secure customers – starting from hardware and low-level firmware.

Boris Balacheff, HP Fellow and Chief Technologist for Security Research and Innovation and Head of the HP Security Lab, says: “As innovation progresses towards more powerful quantum computers, it is urgent to prepare for the threat this represents to the asymmetric cryptography we depend on in our daily digital lives.

“This starts with migrating systems that cannot be updated easily once deployed. After the introduction of quantum-resistant firmware integrity protection in PCs last year, [we announced the] launch of printers with similar capability to protect against future quantum computing threats. We continue with our commitment to lead the way with endpoint security innovation and keep our customers safe into the future.”

Why it’s crucial to act now

The threat quantum computers pose to cryptography has steadily advanced this past year, creating an unacceptable security risk to the algorithms fundamental to securing our digital lives. It would be devastating if these cryptographic algorithms were broken. In response, this last year national authorities and industry experts have intensified their calls to migrate to quantum-resistant cryptography.

Multiple quantum technologies have shown improved stability and scalability, providing promising pathways to a large-scale quantum computer. Experts now estimate that there is a 27% likelihood of a quantum computer breaking cryptography by 2034 [2]. Furthermore, the US, Australia and several European nations have set timelines and guidance for the transition, with 2030 emerging as the probable pivotal date after which many organisations should not rely upon existing quantum-vulnerable asymmetric cryptography.

Organisations should be preparing now by assessing their risks and engaging their vendors to introduce quantum resistance ahead of the threat being realised, prioritising protection of long-lived sensitive data and the hardware security foundation. With general purpose quantum-resistant cryptography algorithms now standardised by NIST and being adopted internationally, 2025 is the first full year where most quantum-vulnerable implementations now have a viable migration path. As a result, HP expects to see protocols and products offering quantum resistance on a widespread scale. So, now is the time to ask vendors how they will be providing quantum-resistant protection.

Two significant false alarms of a quantum breakthrough sent jitters through the security community last year. Though these were effectively assessed, they serve to keep us alert to how damaging a real breakthrough could be on our digital infrastructure if we do not get ahead and prepare now.

HP understands the quantum threat. Its strategy is to prioritise quantum resistance in hardware foundations and securely migrate from there. Last year, HP introduced the world’s first business PCs to protect firmware integrity against quantum computer attacks [3]. It has also announced the world’s first printers to protect firmware integrity against quantum computer attacks [4]. These security innovations show HP’s commitment to anticipating threats and protecting customers into the future.

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[1] Anticipating the Quantum Threat to Cryptography | HP Wolf Security

[2] Global Risk Institute Quantum Threat Timeline 2024 Report, December 2024

[3] HP Launches World’s First Business PCs to Protect Firmware Against Quantum Computer Hacks | HP® Official Site, 7 March 2024

[4] HP Launches World’s First Printers to Protect Against Quantum Computer Attacks | HP® Official Site, 18 March 2025