H-1Bs under Trump: Lots of heat, little action

Widespread opposition from hardcore supporters of US President Donald Trump is unlikely to lead to major changes to the H-1B visa program, which brings tens of thousands of foreign IT workers into the country each year.

Some immigration lawyers and other experts expect the Trump administration to tweak, but not eliminate, the H-1B program after a recent and divisive war of words between recent Trump confidant Elon Musk and longtime MAGA provocateur Steve Bannon. Trump himself has added to the controversy by flip-flopping on the issue and voicing recent support for H-1Bs.

The H1-B program has had detractors for years, with Bannon and other critics saying it takes high-paying jobs away from US residents. Opponents accuse IT companies of often abusing the program by bringing cheaper foreign workers to replace US employees. Backers of the program say it’s essential to bring in the best minds from around the world for the US to remain competitive in the IT industry.

Trump’s anti-immigration push

It’s unlikely that Trump will cut the H-1B program, with him instead focusing on his broader campaign against undocumented immigration, says Jeff Le, who served as a deputy cabinet secretary focused on emerging tech and immigration for former California Gov. Jerry Brown. Trump’s efforts to stop immigration over the US southern border will likely appease his supporter base and ultra-conservative Republicans in Congress, taking the spotlight off the H-1B program, he says.

The program also enjoys bipartisan support in Congress and among those IT leaders who have been longtime allies of Republicans and Trump, says Le, now vice president for global government affairs and public policy at SecurityScorecard, a supply chain security vendor. Trump supporters Peter Thiel, an IT venture capitalist, and Marc Andreessen, an IT investor, are huge supporters of the program, he notes.

“High tech and many of [Trump’s] venture capital backers and supporters have had a laser-focus on expanded high-tech visa programs,” Le says. “Venture-capital-backed AI companies, as well as the Magnificent 7, utilize H-1B visas for hard-to-fill roles, especially in the AI data scientist roles coming from the top-tier American research university programs.”

AI leadership

Le can see the Trump administration cracking down on H-1B fraud, but he expects few other changes as the US aims for worldwide AI dominance.

 “The human capital pipeline is critical for the AI race,” he says. “Human talent represents a critical resource, especially in light of DeepSeek’s significant breakthroughs with inferior chips and drastically less of a spend. People still matter.”

Immigration lawyer Alfredo Lozano, with the Lozano Law Firm in Texas, also expects Trump to make few if any changes to the visa program as several large IT companies attempt to improve their relationships with Trump. It’s possible that Trump may try to bar some nationalities from participating for so-called security reasons, but any changes aren’t likely to happen until late 2025 or early 2026, Lozano says.

“Now that tech has been closer to his inner circle, I believe he will not curtail it and might even leave it alone,” he adds. “Considering his political base, I don’t think the H-1B issue will be brought up; he will focus on deportations to satisfy his base’s support.”

Like Le, Lozano sees value in the H-1B program.

“What a lot of MAGA supporters — white and blue collar — do not understand is our US economy within the tech industry largely depends on these visas,” he says. “These visas bring the brightest professionals worldwide, and once in the US, their economic power extends to many other sectors of our economy.”

Musk vs. MAGA

The latest controversy over H-1Bs started in late December, when Musk called for an expansion to the program. Currently, the program allows 65,000 foreign workers into the US each year, with an additional 20,000 visas for foreign students who graduated with advanced degrees from US colleges.

In recent years, US Citizenship and Immigrations Services has received hundreds of thousands of applications for H-1Bs. For the 2025 approval process, 480,000 people have applied for the visas, while for 2024, 781,000 people did.

Large IT companies, including Amazon, IBM, Microsoft, Google, and Meta, dominate the list of the largest users of H-1B visas.

Trump, in recent days, has changed his stance on H-1Bs. Back in 2016, he called the visas “very bad” for US workers, and in June 2020, as president, he extended an earlier 60-day ban on skilled foreign workers entering the US.

But in late December, Trump said he has “always liked the visas” and uses them in his businesses.

Musk, who has allegedly used H-1B card holders to replace US workers at Tesla, tweeted on Dec. 27 that the program was responsible for him coming to the US and critical to companies like Tesla and SpaceX.

“I will go to war on this issue the likes of which you cannot possibly comprehend,” Musk wrote.

In response, Bannon, during a podcast segment aimed at Musk, said he and other MAGA faithful would “rip your face off“ if he continued to push for more H-1B visas. Bannon called for an end to the H-1B program and for all current visa holders to be deported.

After the immediate backlash, Musk softened his support for the program, saying it was broken and proposing reforms, such as raising the minimum salary.

Despite the heated rhetoric, any changes to the H-1B program under Trump are likely to be “nuanced” administrative adjustments, says Rosanna Berardi, managing partner at Berardi Immigration Law in New York. There may be efforts to streamline renewals of the visas, to exempt international students from the current caps, or to set up a more selective approval process, she says.

Still, large tech companies appear to be quietly preparing for a more restrictive environment, she adds. IT leaders should be prepared for a more challenging visa landscape ahead, just in case.

However, any restrictions to the program would have mixed results for the wider US economy, she adds.

“US workers might see increased opportunities and wages in tech roles, but innovation could slow if companies struggle to fill specialized positions,” Berardi says. “Some firms are already adapting by expanding domestic training programs or establishing overseas development centers.”